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Via Shane Oliver, Head of Investement Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP Capital

Notes that the US FOMC dots are now showing 2 hikes in 2023
  • with the Fed more upbeat on outlook

Powell seemed more dovish in press conference though

  • downplayed the dots (take "with a grain of salt") 
  • but said Fed now "talking about talking about tapering" but "substantial further progress still a ways away"

Formal taper talk is likely to start at the next Fed meeting with tapering likely from later this year/early next

  • 2023 for the first Fed rate hike seems a reasonable expectation

Separately Oliver notes on the RBA

  • we still first RBA hike in 2023







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Thu 17 Jun 2021 01:15:24 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4298 (vs. yesterday at 6.4078)

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.   - USD/CNY is permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4298 (vs. yesterday at 6.4078)


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 01:15:24 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0


The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.   - USD/CNY is permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.

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Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:52:56 GMT

More from RBA's Lowe, says border closure could put upward pressure on wages

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe, earlier comments here: Q&A now: Headlines via Reuters The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on July 6, Lowe said in his earlier comments that the Board would be making a decision on yield targeting then. 

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More from RBA's Lowe, says border closure could put upward pressure on wages


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:52:56 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe, earlier comments here: Q&A now: Headlines via Reuters The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on July 6, Lowe said in his earlier comments that the Board would be making a decision on yield targeting then. 

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Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:50:01 GMT

Merrill Lynch sticks to its forecast for Fed taper to begin early in 2022

ML with its response to the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday. Snippet from their note:

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Merrill Lynch sticks to its forecast for Fed taper to begin early in 2022


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:50:01 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
ML with its response to the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday. Snippet from their note:

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Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:31:10 GMT

Singapore May NODX -0.1% m/m (vs. +4.7% expected)

Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) for May 2021 Big miss. 

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Singapore May NODX -0.1% m/m (vs. +4.7% expected)


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:31:10 GMT
Category: News
0
Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) for May 2021 Big miss. 

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Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:16:10 GMT

ANZ now forecasting an Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate hike in February 2022

ANZ on the RBNZ, shift forward their expectation (from August 2022) for a hike based on today's strong GDP data result. 

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ANZ now forecasting an Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate hike in February 2022


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:16:10 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
ANZ on the RBNZ, shift forward their expectation (from August 2022) for a hike based on today's strong GDP data result. 

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Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:11:11 GMT

1

RBA Gov Lowe: Premature to be considering ending bond buying

Philip Lowe, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor speech - topic is: From Recovery to Expansion - venue is the Australian Farm Institute Conference Headlines via Reuters 

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RBA Gov Lowe: Premature to be considering ending bond buying


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20170905/lowe.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:11:11 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Philip Lowe, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor speech - topic is: From Recovery to Expansion - venue is the Australian Farm Institute Conference Headlines via Reuters 

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Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:00:06 GMT

Hong Kong police have arrested 5 media executives

Reuters report (citing local media in HK) that five at Apple Daily newspaper have been arrested --- Apple Daily is a Hong Kong newspaper founded by Jimmy Lai. 

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Hong Kong police have arrested 5 media executives


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210617/0-apple-daily-hk.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:00:06 GMT
Category: News
0
Reuters report (citing local media in HK) that five at Apple Daily newspaper have been arrested --- Apple Daily is a Hong Kong newspaper founded by Jimmy Lai. 

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:58:13 GMT

AUD traders - heads up for RBA Gov Lowe speaking soon

At  0010 GMT - Philip Lowe, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor speech - topic is: From Recovery to Expansion - venue is the Australian Farm Institute Conference

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AUD traders - heads up for RBA Gov Lowe speaking soon


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:58:13 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
At  0010 GMT - Philip Lowe, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor speech - topic is: From Recovery to Expansion - venue is the Australian Farm Institute Conference

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:41:47 GMT

BoC Gov Macklem says taking the recent strength of the CAD into account

Bank of Canada Gov Macklem: - The recent strength of the CAD could weigh on our projections, could cut exports, and we are taking that into account

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BoC Gov Macklem says taking the recent strength of the CAD into account


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:41:47 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Bank of Canada Gov Macklem: - The recent strength of the CAD could weigh on our projections, could cut exports, and we are taking that into account

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:33:56 GMT

New Zealand will allow travellers from Victoria (Australia) quarantine-free from June 23

The COVID-19 outbreak in the Australian state of Victoria has abated and restrictions in the state have been eased somewhat. New Zealand says they'll allow travel again from 11.59pm June 22 

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New Zealand will allow travellers from Victoria (Australia) quarantine-free from June 23


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:33:56 GMT
Category: News
0
The COVID-19 outbreak in the Australian state of Victoria has abated and restrictions in the state have been eased somewhat. New Zealand says they'll allow travel again from 11.59pm June 22 

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:25:11 GMT

JP Morgan says they continue to expect Fed interest rate hike lift-off in 2023, taper in early 2022

Snippet from JPM FOMC response JPM comments via Reuters 

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JP Morgan says they continue to expect Fed interest rate hike lift-off in 2023, taper in early 2022


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:25:11 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Snippet from JPM FOMC response JPM comments via Reuters 

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:01:41 GMT

Japan data - Reuters Tankan, June manufacturing index 22 (prior 21)

And the non-manufacturing index is 0 (prior 2)  Projections: The Reuters Tankan poll is intended to track the quarterly Bank of Japan tankan survey. 

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Japan data - Reuters Tankan, June manufacturing index 22 (prior 21)


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:01:41 GMT
Category: News
0
And the non-manufacturing index is 0 (prior 2)  Projections: The Reuters Tankan poll is intended to track the quarterly Bank of Japan tankan survey. 

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:57:11 GMT

More from BoC Gov. Macklem: Recent higher inflation reflects base-year effects

Earlier comments are here:  BoC Gov Macklem says economic recovery is make good progress Macklem speaking to an upper house committee in the Canadian parliament.  More remarks now:

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More from BoC Gov. Macklem: Recent higher inflation reflects base-year effects


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:57:11 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Earlier comments are here:  BoC Gov Macklem says economic recovery is make good progress Macklem speaking to an upper house committee in the Canadian parliament.  More remarks now:

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:49:44 GMT

New Zealand GDP for Q1 2021 (sa) 1.6% q/q (expected +0.5%)

New Zealand economimc growth in Q1, January - March, of 2021 GDP (sa) 1.6% q/q GDP 2.4% y/y  NZD has been marked just a little higher on this data, GDP a solid beat. 

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New Zealand GDP for Q1 2021 (sa) 1.6% q/q (expected +0.5%)


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:49:44 GMT
Category: News
0
New Zealand economimc growth in Q1, January - March, of 2021 GDP (sa) 1.6% q/q GDP 2.4% y/y  NZD has been marked just a little higher on this data, GDP a solid beat. 

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:33:33 GMT

BoC Gov Macklem says economic recovery is make good progress

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking to an upper house committee in the Canadian parliament. Via video conference.  Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

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BoC Gov Macklem says economic recovery is make good progress


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210121/macklem.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:33:33 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking to an upper house committee in the Canadian parliament. Via video conference.  Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:26:56 GMT

Goldman Sachs says more hawkish Fed expectations a 'headwind' for short USD

Goldman Sachs says they are still forecasting a weakening for the USD, citing: But: Goldman's has shut down their long EUR/USD trade recommendation after the FOMC Wednesday. ICYMI - Fed developments:

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Goldman Sachs says more hawkish Fed expectations a 'headwind' for short USD


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210616/powell-dots.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:26:56 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Goldman Sachs says they are still forecasting a weakening for the USD, citing: But: Goldman's has shut down their long EUR/USD trade recommendation after the FOMC Wednesday. ICYMI - Fed developments:

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 21:54:32 GMT

Brazil's central bank hikes rates by 75bp, indicates it may do so again next meeting

Banco Central do Brasil​ hikes its benchmark interest rate to 4.25%, as polls expected.  Headlines via Reuters:

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Brazil's central bank hikes rates by 75bp, indicates it may do so again next meeting


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 21:54:32 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Banco Central do Brasil​ hikes its benchmark interest rate to 4.25%, as polls expected.  Headlines via Reuters:

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 21:48:00 GMT

CAD traders heads up - Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking soon

Macklem will be speaking in parliament before an upper house committee. The boss pulls the night shift! The BoC effectively bought a little time for loose monetary policy when its comments on tapering a few months back acted to support CAD, the gains for the currency have, in effect, been a defacto tightening (a little, not a lot). 

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CAD traders heads up - Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking soon


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200501/tiff-macklem.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 21:48:00 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Macklem will be speaking in parliament before an upper house committee. The boss pulls the night shift! The BoC effectively bought a little time for loose monetary policy when its comments on tapering a few months back acted to support CAD, the gains for the currency have, in effect, been a defacto tightening (a little, not a lot). 

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 21:16:31 GMT

UK Trade Sec Truss trade talks with New Zealand Thursday (London time)

UK Trade Secretary Liz Truss and her New Zealand counterpart Damien O'Connor  will hold talks on Thursday in London. Its the first time the two have met in-person.

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UK Trade Sec Truss trade talks with New Zealand Thursday (London time)


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 21:16:31 GMT
Category: News
0
UK Trade Secretary Liz Truss and her New Zealand counterpart Damien O'Connor  will hold talks on Thursday in London. Its the first time the two have met in-person.

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 20:54:02 GMT

ICYMI - Saudi oil minister says there is a risk of an oil price supercycle due to lack of investing

Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman was speaking at the Robin Hood Investors Conference (i.e.  an audience of hedge funds) The background to his investment comment is that some oil producers and exploration firms  have scaled back drilling budgets to conserve cash and avoid a new supply glut. Also, hopes for green energy are playing a role in this. 

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ICYMI - Saudi oil minister says there is a risk of an oil price supercycle due to lack of investing


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/oil.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 20:54:02 GMT
Category: News
0
Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman was speaking at the Robin Hood Investors Conference (i.e.  an audience of hedge funds) The background to his investment comment is that some oil producers and exploration firms  have scaled back drilling budgets to conserve cash and avoid a new supply glut. Also, hopes for green energy are playing a role in this. 

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 20:44:41 GMT

2

Trade ideas thread - Thursday 17 June 2021

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:         

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Trade ideas thread - Thursday 17 June 2021


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 20:44:41 GMT
Category: News
2
Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:         

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 20:37:41 GMT

3

USD adding a little to its post-FOMC gains in thin liquidity trade ... gold lower

This time of the 24 forex cycle is the thinnest, with the US closing up shop for the day and only New Zealand open.  Gold is dropping toward $1820, EUR, GBP both losing a little more ground against the USD. 

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USD adding a little to its post-FOMC gains in thin liquidity trade ... gold lower


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210616/gold-fomc-17-june-2021.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 20:37:41 GMT
Category: News
3
This time of the 24 forex cycle is the thinnest, with the US closing up shop for the day and only New Zealand open.  Gold is dropping toward $1820, EUR, GBP both losing a little more ground against the USD. 

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 20:25:49 GMT

ICYMI - US Treasury Sec Yellen says US may decouple from China to some extent

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke around about the time of the FOMC, so her comments may have slipped under the radar.  Updating here now ICYMI. Yellen was speaking to the US Congress'  Senate Finance Committee

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ICYMI - US Treasury Sec Yellen says US may decouple from China to some extent


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20161218/yellen-glasses.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 20:25:49 GMT
Category: News
0
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke around about the time of the FOMC, so her comments may have slipped under the radar.  Updating here now ICYMI. Yellen was speaking to the US Congress'  Senate Finance Committee

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 20:06:50 GMT

Stocks close lower on FOMC decision but off the lows

Fed ups inflation expectations and said thinking about thinking about tapering The US stocks are closing lower on FOMC decision, but well off the lows. The Fed up there expectations for inflation in 2021, but still see inflation rates moving back toward just over 2% in 2022.  The US 10 yield is up about eight basis points to 1.579%.  That is still off the high yield for the year 1.774%.

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Stocks close lower on FOMC decision but off the lows


Greg Michalowski
Wed 16 Jun 2021 20:06:50 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Fed ups inflation expectations and said thinking about thinking about tapering The US stocks are closing lower on FOMC decision, but well off the lows. The Fed up there expectations for inflation in 2021, but still see inflation rates moving back toward just over 2% in 2022.  The US 10 yield is up about eight basis points to 1.579%.  That is still off the high yield for the year 1.774%.

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