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Forex news for North American trade on January 15, 2020:

Markets:
  • Gold down $21 to $1826
  • US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 1.09%
  • WTI crude down $1.43 to $52.14
  • S&P 500 down 27 points to 3768
  • USD leads, NZD lags
There was a decided risk off tone in markets and that meant a bid in the US dollar even as Treasury yields slid. It was a classic 'sell the fact' move after Biden's big stimulus plan, something I warned about.

Midway through the day, commodity currencies and risk assets tried to stage a rally and they made some headway before the selling returned later.

The economic data was a reminder of how much the government is supporting consumption as retail sales missed badly. There were also reminders of inflation pressures in the PPI and U Mich data, but the bond market appears to be moving on from that theme.

There wasn't much political fallout from the Biden plan with few Senators speaking for or against it. Take that as a good sign for Biden but the market wasn't in that kind of mood, perhaps with the long weekend taking away some of the positive sentiment.

Tune in for the Chinese data on the weekend and a thin session on Monday.


Forex news for North American trade on January 15, 2020:

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 21:05:45 GMT

1

Major indices close lower with the NASDAQ leading the way

NASDAQ down -0.87% The final numbers are showing: Below are the percentage changes and ranges of the major indices. European shares also ended lower with the Spain Ibex leading the way at -1.69%. The German DAX fell -1.44%.

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Major indices close lower with the NASDAQ leading the way


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/snag_1d2f179.png Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 21:05:45 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
1


NASDAQ down -0.87% The final numbers are showing: Below are the percentage changes and ranges of the major indices. European shares also ended lower with the Spain Ibex leading the way at -1.69%. The German DAX fell -1.44%.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 20:46:08 GMT

1

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR longs move back up to December highs

Weekly forex futures positioning data from the CFTC - EUR long 156K vs 143K long last week. Long increased by 13K - GBP long 13K vs 4K long last week. Longs increased by 9K

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CFTC commitments of traders: EUR longs move back up to December highs


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_13-45-32.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 20:46:08 GMT
Category: News
1
Weekly forex futures positioning data from the CFTC - EUR long 156K vs 143K long last week. Long increased by 13K - GBP long 13K vs 4K long last week. Longs increased by 9K

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 20:32:51 GMT

The pound was the top performer this week

GBP narrowly beats out JPY and USD It was a tight race at the top of the FX charts this week that grew much tighter after today's drop in cable. Yet sterling has managed to hang onto its title, at least so far. It's a few pips higher on the week versus the yen and US dollar. Cable has risen in 9 of the past 11 weeks in a 640 pip rally since the start of November.

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The pound was the top performer this week


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_15-17-48.png Adam Button
Fri 15 Jan 2021 20:32:51 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
GBP narrowly beats out JPY and USD It was a tight race at the top of the FX charts this week that grew much tighter after today's drop in cable. Yet sterling has managed to hang onto its title, at least so far. It's a few pips higher on the week versus the yen and US dollar. Cable has risen in 9 of the past 11 weeks in a 640 pip rally since the start of November.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 20:27:27 GMT

1

EURUSD trades at new lows and lowest level since December 10

The EURUSD has traded most of the week below the close from last week The EURUSD closed last week week at 1.22159. The price initially fell on Monday to a low of 1.21315 and formed a bottom between that level and 1.21364 on Tuesday before moving higher, and retesting the close from last week. The high for the week on Wednesday reached 1.2222 just 6 or so pips from the closing level last week before rotating lower.

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EURUSD trades at new lows and lowest level since December 10


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_13-07-33.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 20:27:27 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
1
The EURUSD has traded most of the week below the close from last week The EURUSD closed last week week at 1.22159. The price initially fell on Monday to a low of 1.21315 and formed a bottom between that level and 1.21364 on Tuesday before moving higher, and retesting the close from last week. The high for the week on Wednesday reached 1.2222 just 6 or so pips from the closing level last week before rotating lower.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 19:43:15 GMT

Reminder: Monday is a holiday in the US

Markets closed on Monday Monday is Martin Luther King Jr Day in the US, making it a market holiday. US equity and bond markets are fully closed. Of course, the FX market never closes for holidays but liquidity will be considerably constrained. Canadian markets are open but the economic calendar is light, with only December housing starts.

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Reminder: Monday is a holiday in the US


Adam Button
Fri 15 Jan 2021 19:43:15 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Markets closed on Monday Monday is Martin Luther King Jr Day in the US, making it a market holiday. US equity and bond markets are fully closed. Of course, the FX market never closes for holidays but liquidity will be considerably constrained. Canadian markets are open but the economic calendar is light, with only December housing starts.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 19:39:09 GMT

WTI crude oil futures settle at $52.36

Down $1.21 or -2.26% Looking at the hourly chart, the fall today took the price back below its 100 hour moving average of $52.91, and closer to its 200 hour moving average currently at $51.75. The low price for the day was just above that level $51.83. 

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WTI crude oil futures settle at $52.36


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_12-36-54.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 19:39:09 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Down $1.21 or -2.26% Looking at the hourly chart, the fall today took the price back below its 100 hour moving average of $52.91, and closer to its 200 hour moving average currently at $51.75. The low price for the day was just above that level $51.83. 

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 19:08:13 GMT

16

McConnell tells Senators that Trump impeachment vote will be one of conscience

16 Republican Senators could ban Trump from running again Pelosi said she will send the articles of impeachment to the Senate next week. I had thought that the idea would die with Biden's inauguration but that's not going to be the case. A big reason is because if he's convicted, Schumer now says they will vote on banning him from running for President again.

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McConnell tells Senators that Trump impeachment vote will be one of conscience


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200608/mitch-mcconnell.png Adam Button
Fri 15 Jan 2021 19:08:13 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
16
16 Republican Senators could ban Trump from running again Pelosi said she will send the articles of impeachment to the Senate next week. I had thought that the idea would die with Biden's inauguration but that's not going to be the case. A big reason is because if he's convicted, Schumer now says they will vote on banning him from running for President again.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 18:59:29 GMT

MUFG trade of the week: Sell EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY trade idea Analysts at MUFG reccomend selling EUR/JPY in the week ahead with a target of 123.00 and a stop at 127.30. "We are recommending a short EUR/JPY trade idea to take advantage of the euro's downward momentum in the near-term," they write.

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MUFG trade of the week: Sell EUR/JPY


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/eurjpy-daily-d.png Adam Button
Fri 15 Jan 2021 18:59:29 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
EUR/JPY trade idea Analysts at MUFG reccomend selling EUR/JPY in the week ahead with a target of 123.00 and a stop at 127.30. "We are recommending a short EUR/JPY trade idea to take advantage of the euro's downward momentum in the near-term," they write.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 18:54:27 GMT

2

Former BOC leader Poloz: I expect some strength in the Canadian dollar

Comments from Steven Poloz He's finally taken off his BOC hat and now he can talk about the currency.

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Former BOC leader Poloz: I expect some strength in the Canadian dollar


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_13-35-17.png Adam Button
Fri 15 Jan 2021 18:54:27 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
2
Comments from Steven Poloz He's finally taken off his BOC hat and now he can talk about the currency.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 18:04:46 GMT

3

Fed's Rosengren on CNBC: Biden's $1.9 trillion package was big but appropriate

Rosengren is a nonvoter in 2021 - Bidens $1.9 trillion package was big but appropriate - we need expansionary fiscal policy to 8 economy - expects that as we get closer to full employment will have tighter fiscal policy

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Fed's Rosengren on CNBC: Biden's $1.9 trillion package was big but appropriate


Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 18:04:46 GMT
Category: Central Banks
3
Rosengren is a nonvoter in 2021 - Bidens $1.9 trillion package was big but appropriate - we need expansionary fiscal policy to 8 economy - expects that as we get closer to full employment will have tighter fiscal policy

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 18:01:31 GMT

Baker Hughes oil rigs rise to 287 from 275 last week.

Oil rigs above estimate of 278. Oil and gas rigs have risen now for the 8th consecutive week.

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Baker Hughes oil rigs rise to 287 from 275 last week.


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_11-03-45.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 18:01:31 GMT
Category: News
0
Oil rigs above estimate of 278. Oil and gas rigs have risen now for the 8th consecutive week.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 17:59:37 GMT

EURGBP bounces off key support.... again

Support at 0.88603 to 0.8878. Low in EURUSD moved to 0.88649 today. That is the good news for the dip buyers.  The not so good news is that the bounce is still modest. 

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EURGBP bounces off key support.... again


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_10-54-25.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 17:59:37 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Support at 0.88603 to 0.8878. Low in EURUSD moved to 0.88649 today. That is the good news for the dip buyers.  The not so good news is that the bounce is still modest. 

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 17:27:22 GMT

Some of the major earnings releases for next week's trading

The earnings season is underway It always it seems like we just finished the last cycle of earnings, but with the release of Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo earnings today, the season is restarting.

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Some of the major earnings releases for next week's trading


Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 17:27:22 GMT
Category: News
0
The earnings season is underway It always it seems like we just finished the last cycle of earnings, but with the release of Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo earnings today, the season is restarting.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 17:07:10 GMT

6

UK to close all travel corridors on Monday

Boris Johnson cites risk of new strains All travel corridors will close from 4 am on Monday. Johnson also highlights that nearly 45% of all +80-year olds have received the first dose of the vaccine.

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UK to close all travel corridors on Monday


Adam Button
Fri 15 Jan 2021 17:07:10 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
6
Boris Johnson cites risk of new strains All travel corridors will close from 4 am on Monday. Johnson also highlights that nearly 45% of all +80-year olds have received the first dose of the vaccine.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:54:19 GMT

11

Quick turn in sentiment lifts commodity currencies

Sentiment rebounds 'Sell the fact' is running into 'buy the dip' in a hurry. As I wrote : "I just don't think there's a big scope for a real rout. There's so much excitement for the post-vaccine economy, that I can't see this lasting."

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Quick turn in sentiment lifts commodity currencies


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_11-53-06.png Adam Button
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:54:19 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
11
Sentiment rebounds 'Sell the fact' is running into 'buy the dip' in a hurry. As I wrote : "I just don't think there's a big scope for a real rout. There's so much excitement for the post-vaccine economy, that I can't see this lasting."

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:47:40 GMT

1

European shares end the session with sharp declines

Major indices lower on the week as well The provisional closes are showing: For the week: In other markets as London/European traders look to exit:

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European shares end the session with sharp declines


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_9-45-17.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:47:40 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
1
Major indices lower on the week as well The provisional closes are showing: For the week: In other markets as London/European traders look to exit:

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:46:57 GMT

1

Fed's Kashkari: Vaccine news has been a positive surprise

Comments from the Minneapolis Fed The comments are in a virtual discussion and are ongoing.

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Fed's Kashkari: Vaccine news has been a positive surprise


Adam Button
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:46:57 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Comments from the Minneapolis Fed The comments are in a virtual discussion and are ongoing.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:33:16 GMT

USDJPY trades between its 100 and 200 hour moving averages

USDJPY 100 hour moving average at 103.935. The 200 hour moving averages at 103.70 The USDJPY tried for the 2nd consecutive day to break below the 200 hour moving average. However, like yesterday, the momentum on the break could not be sustained, and the price has rebounded higher.

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USDJPY trades between its 100 and 200 hour moving averages


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_9-19-00.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:33:16 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
USDJPY 100 hour moving average at 103.935. The 200 hour moving averages at 103.70 The USDJPY tried for the 2nd consecutive day to break below the 200 hour moving average. However, like yesterday, the momentum on the break could not be sustained, and the price has rebounded higher.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:25:15 GMT

New York Fed Nowcast GDP tracker for fourth-quarter rises to 2.5% from 2.22%

Gains from capacity utilization and industrial production Below is the trend (which has been moving to the downside since the estimates started at the end of August), and the contributors/contractors from this week's numbers.

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New York Fed Nowcast GDP tracker for fourth-quarter rises to 2.5% from 2.22%


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_9-21-01.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:25:15 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Gains from capacity utilization and industrial production Below is the trend (which has been moving to the downside since the estimates started at the end of August), and the contributors/contractors from this week's numbers.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:07:13 GMT

14

Bitcoin tumbles. Down over 10% on the day

Bitcoin falls back below its 200 and 100 hour moving averages Looking at the hourly chart, the price has accelerated to the downside after breaking back below its 200 hour moving average at $37,599 and then its 100 day moving average at $36,030.  Stay below those levels tilts the bias more to the downside from a technical perspective. The next major downside target comes in at $32,684.57 where the 38.2% retracement is currently found (there were lows near that level on Tuesday and Wednesday). 

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Bitcoin tumbles. Down over 10% on the day


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_9-05-55.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:07:13 GMT
Category: Cryptocurrency
14
Bitcoin falls back below its 200 and 100 hour moving averages Looking at the hourly chart, the price has accelerated to the downside after breaking back below its 200 hour moving average at $37,599 and then its 100 day moving average at $36,030.  Stay below those levels tilts the bias more to the downside from a technical perspective. The next major downside target comes in at $32,684.57 where the 38.2% retracement is currently found (there were lows near that level on Tuesday and Wednesday). 

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:02:49 GMT

1

AUDUSD corrects to retracement target

AUDUSD tests the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 21 low The fall has taken the price down to test the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 21 low. That retracement level comes in at 0.76826. The low price just reached 0.76806 and are seeing a modest bounce.  A move below the 38.2% retracement would next target the low for the week at 0.7665.

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AUDUSD corrects to retracement target


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_8-54-36.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:02:49 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
1
AUDUSD tests the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 21 low The fall has taken the price down to test the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 21 low. That retracement level comes in at 0.76826. The low price just reached 0.76806 and are seeing a modest bounce.  A move below the 38.2% retracement would next target the low for the week at 0.7665.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 15:57:26 GMT

1

Gold nears the lows of the week as decline extends to $20

Strong dollar, weak gold Gold initially rose on Biden's stimulus plan but there's been a sharp turnaround on the 'sell the fact' trade across everything. The US dollar is strong across the board and that's putting pressure on gold.

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Gold nears the lows of the week as decline extends to $20


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/gold-chart.png Adam Button
Fri 15 Jan 2021 15:57:26 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Technical Analysis
1
Strong dollar, weak gold Gold initially rose on Biden's stimulus plan but there's been a sharp turnaround on the 'sell the fact' trade across everything. The US dollar is strong across the board and that's putting pressure on gold.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 15:53:10 GMT

GBPUSD tests 50% midpoint. Finds some support buyers

GBPUSD price still below 200 hour moving average The GBPUSD has been trending to the downside and in the early New York session tested the cluster of support defined by the 100 hour moving average (blue line), the 38.2% retracement and the 200 hour moving average (green line).  

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GBPUSD tests 50% midpoint. Finds some support buyers


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_8-43-49.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 15:53:10 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
GBPUSD price still below 200 hour moving average The GBPUSD has been trending to the downside and in the early New York session tested the cluster of support defined by the 100 hour moving average (blue line), the 38.2% retracement and the 200 hour moving average (green line).  

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 15:24:57 GMT

6

US stocks are hitting the skids. Major indices down over 1%

S&P index falls below its 100 hour moving average sell the fact Technically looking at the S&P index on the hourly chart, the price has now fallen below its 50 and 100 hour MAs at 3771.07 and 3761.00. The 200 hour moving average is currently at 3723.91.

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US stocks are hitting the skids. Major indices down over 1%


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_8-26-14.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 15:24:57 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
6
S&P index falls below its 100 hour moving average sell the fact Technically looking at the S&P index on the hourly chart, the price has now fallen below its 50 and 100 hour MAs at 3771.07 and 3761.00. The 200 hour moving average is currently at 3723.91.

Asset 24 View More

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