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Author: Adam Button

It's been a strong month so far

European equity markets have dwarfed US markets this week. The S&P 500 is slumping today and the weekly gain is down to 0.67% in the S&P 500.

Every main European market gained more:

  • UK FTSE +1.4%
  • French CAC +1.8%
  • German DAX +0.8%
  • Spain IBEX +1.2%
  • Italy MIB +2.1%

Some drama in Italian politics late in the week didn't hurt Italian stock markets at all. The MIB has been strong since the election and is now flirting with the January highs.

MIB daily:

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Author: Adam Button
12

Fed's Brainard: Outlook is consistent with gradual hikes

Brainard comments on CNBC - Economic outlook is quite solid - Inflation moving towards target is encouraging - US job market continues to tighten - There are risks on the horizon, we need to be on guard There's one little caveat on growth but she's largely upbeat. The US dollar hasn't really reacted but if anything, this is another sign that a hike in June is coming and more are expected later.

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Fed's Brainard: Outlook is consistent with gradual hikes


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
12


Brainard comments on CNBC - Economic outlook is quite solid - Inflation moving towards target is encouraging - US job market continues to tighten - There are risks on the horizon, we need to be on guard There's one little caveat on growth but she's largely upbeat. The US dollar hasn't really reacted but if anything, this is another sign that a hike in June is coming and more are expected later.

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UK data: March CPI 0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%)
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Author: Adam Button
1

NAFTA: Canada's Freeland says negotiators will stay in Washington for weekend

Says ministers will reconvene next week Sounds like everyone is trying to get down to business. Freeland said they are making 'good progress'. A separate headline from the Mexican minister says they will meet again on Tuesday.

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NAFTA: Canada's Freeland says negotiators will stay in Washington for weekend


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
1
Says ministers will reconvene next week Sounds like everyone is trying to get down to business. Freeland said they are making 'good progress'. A separate headline from the Mexican minister says they will meet again on Tuesday.

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Author: Adam Button

Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count 820 vs 815 prior

Weekly oil and gas drilling rig data from Baker Hughes - Prior was 815 - Natural gas rigs flat at 192 There was a survey that said 820 was 'expected', but I would be wary of that.

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Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count 820 vs 815 prior


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Weekly oil and gas drilling rig data from Baker Hughes - Prior was 815 - Natural gas rigs flat at 192 There was a survey that said 820 was 'expected', but I would be wary of that.

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Author: Adam Button

USD/JPY tests the mid-February high and then backs off

USD/JPY shrugs off stock market weakness It's a push-and-pull with USD/JPY on most days. Today it's weakness in the stock market trying to push it lower but higher Treasury yields are the overwhelming force, pulling it higher.

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USD/JPY tests the mid-February high and then backs off


Author: Adam Button
0
USD/JPY shrugs off stock market weakness It's a push-and-pull with USD/JPY on most days. Today it's weakness in the stock market trying to push it lower but higher Treasury yields are the overwhelming force, pulling it higher.

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Author: Adam Button
1

Fed's Williams says he sees continued rate increases

Williams sure is talking a lot lately - In the context of strong labor market, wage growth and stable inflation he sees continued rate increases - Expects new normal for the Fed's balance sheet to be around $3 trillion Williams is the second Fed member within an hour to talk about higher deficits and debt steepening the yield curve. Should someone tell them that Japan has enormous deficits and debt?

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Fed's Williams says he sees continued rate increases


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Williams sure is talking a lot lately - In the context of strong labor market, wage growth and stable inflation he sees continued rate increases - Expects new normal for the Fed's balance sheet to be around $3 trillion Williams is the second Fed member within an hour to talk about higher deficits and debt steepening the yield curve. Should someone tell them that Japan has enormous deficits and debt?

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Author: Adam Button

Looks like it's going to be a showdown between the NY and Atlanta Fed with some diverging GDP forecasts

Q1 GDP is due on Friday The New York Fed is out with its final Nowcast GDP estimate ahead of Q1 advance GDP on Friday. The estimate ticked up to 2.91% from 2.79% a week ago.

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Looks like it's going to be a showdown between the NY and Atlanta Fed with some diverging GDP forecasts


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Q1 GDP is due on Friday The New York Fed is out with its final Nowcast GDP estimate ahead of Q1 advance GDP on Friday. The estimate ticked up to 2.91% from 2.79% a week ago.

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Author: Adam Button
1

Fed's Evans: Yield curve less of a concern than a couple months ago

Evans speaks with reporters - If inflation rises faster than expected, it's a sign of a stronger economy that can withstand more hikes - Says he will be reviewing his estimate of the neutral rate We hear so often from Evans that he's rarely a market mover but he's a good guy to listen to and get a sense of what the Fed's thinking about. I'm not so sure that hoping deficits will steepen the yield curve is a very good strategy.

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Fed's Evans: Yield curve less of a concern than a couple months ago


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Evans speaks with reporters - If inflation rises faster than expected, it's a sign of a stronger economy that can withstand more hikes - Says he will be reviewing his estimate of the neutral rate We hear so often from Evans that he's rarely a market mover but he's a good guy to listen to and get a sense of what the Fed's thinking about. I'm not so sure that hoping deficits will steepen the yield curve is a very good strategy.

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Author: Adam Button
81

The Democratic party decides to sue everyone for election loss

This is bizarre I think this one is going to backfire and look like sour grapes but the Washington Post is reporting that the Democratic National Committee is suing the Russian government, the Trump campaign and WikiLeaks. They allege a conspiracy to disrupt the 2016 campaign.

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The Democratic party decides to sue everyone for election loss


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
81
This is bizarre I think this one is going to backfire and look like sour grapes but the Washington Post is reporting that the Democratic National Committee is suing the Russian government, the Trump campaign and WikiLeaks. They allege a conspiracy to disrupt the 2016 campaign.

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Author: Adam Button
4

ECB's Draghi: Confidence in the inflation outlook has increased

Draghi out with some comments in an IMFC statement - Growth momentum is expected to continue - Ample degree of monetary stimulus remains needed - Patience, persistence and prudence needed There's a bit of everything here but it reads dovish to me.

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ECB's Draghi: Confidence in the inflation outlook has increased


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
4
Draghi out with some comments in an IMFC statement - Growth momentum is expected to continue - Ample degree of monetary stimulus remains needed - Patience, persistence and prudence needed There's a bit of everything here but it reads dovish to me.

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Author: Adam Button

US dollar hiccups into the fix

US dollar backs off It's probably only a bump in the road, but the US dollar was sold across the board into the fix. At the same time, stock markets are wilting a bit here and that's pulled down yields. There's this circular story in bonds and stocks that makes it tough for the dollar to get any real momentum.

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US dollar hiccups into the fix


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
US dollar backs off It's probably only a bump in the road, but the US dollar was sold across the board into the fix. At the same time, stock markets are wilting a bit here and that's pulled down yields. There's this circular story in bonds and stocks that makes it tough for the dollar to get any real momentum.

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Author: Adam Button
6

ECB said to see scope to wait for July meeting to signal end of QE

BBG report - The officials want more time to assess the recent slowdown - Said to have no talks on interest rate path after QE The euro quickly fell to a session low of 1.2250 on the headlines but has bounced back to 1.2267.

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ECB said to see scope to wait for July meeting to signal end of QE


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
6
BBG report - The officials want more time to assess the recent slowdown - Said to have no talks on interest rate path after QE The euro quickly fell to a session low of 1.2250 on the headlines but has bounced back to 1.2267.

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Author: Adam Button
2

Congress could be the big problem for a NAFTA deal

A new deal would need to be ratified The White House may be forced into a game of brinkmanship to get a new NAFTA deal approved. Politico today reports on some of the problems of getting congressional approval.

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Congress could be the big problem for a NAFTA deal


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
2
A new deal would need to be ratified The White House may be forced into a game of brinkmanship to get a new NAFTA deal approved. Politico today reports on some of the problems of getting congressional approval.

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Author: Adam Button
19

ECB's Weidmann: We have had indications recently that Q1 in Germany was 'not so brilliant'

Upbeat comments from Weidmann on Germany - Don't see any reason to assume we're at an economic turning point, we're still experiencing economic boom - Says 'air is getting thinner' in German economy Economic boom? If that's an economic boom, then what do you call 6% growth in China?

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ECB's Weidmann: We have had indications recently that Q1 in Germany was 'not so brilliant'


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
19
Upbeat comments from Weidmann on Germany - Don't see any reason to assume we're at an economic turning point, we're still experiencing economic boom - Says 'air is getting thinner' in German economy Economic boom? If that's an economic boom, then what do you call 6% growth in China?

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Author: Adam Button
2

Eurozone April advance consumer confidence +0.40 vs -0.10 expected

Eurozone April consumer confidence data - Prior was -0.10 There was a skew in the polls with Reuters at -0.20 and Bloomberg at -0.10. This is the best reading since +1.4 in January. It's also a rare piece of good news for the Eurozone after months of missing estimates.

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Eurozone April advance consumer confidence +0.40 vs -0.10 expected


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
2
Eurozone April consumer confidence data - Prior was -0.10 There was a skew in the polls with Reuters at -0.20 and Bloomberg at -0.10. This is the best reading since +1.4 in January. It's also a rare piece of good news for the Eurozone after months of missing estimates.

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Author: Adam Button

Fed's Evans says some cyclical upturn in inflation would be welcome

Evans in Chicago Similar comments from a speech Evans made on Tuesday, where he said he sees no risk of breakaway inflation. He will answer questions from the audience and media later.

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Fed's Evans says some cyclical upturn in inflation would be welcome


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Evans in Chicago Similar comments from a speech Evans made on Tuesday, where he said he sees no risk of breakaway inflation. He will answer questions from the audience and media later.

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Author: Adam Button
14

EUR/USD falls to the lowest since April 8 as the US dollar climbs

EUR/USD falls below the April 11 low The euro has stumbled for the second day and is now down 60 pips to a session low of 1.2287. In the short-term, the move is about a stronger dollar. Higher Treasury yields have been the story late in the week and that's helped to underpin the dollar.

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EUR/USD falls to the lowest since April 8 as the US dollar climbs


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
14
EUR/USD falls below the April 11 low The euro has stumbled for the second day and is now down 60 pips to a session low of 1.2287. In the short-term, the move is about a stronger dollar. Higher Treasury yields have been the story late in the week and that's helped to underpin the dollar.

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Author: Adam Button
1

Canadian dollar falls to the lowest since April 8 on soft retail sales and inflation. What's next

Canadian dollar slumps The Canadian dollar is lower for the third consecutive day after disappointing data on retail sales and inflation. That has pushed USD/CAD to the best levels since April 8.

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Canadian dollar falls to the lowest since April 8 on soft retail sales and inflation. What's next


Author: Adam Button
1
Canadian dollar slumps The Canadian dollar is lower for the third consecutive day after disappointing data on retail sales and inflation. That has pushed USD/CAD to the best levels since April 8.

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Author: Adam Button
20

Canada March CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% expected

Canada March consumer price index data - Prior was +2.2% - CPI +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% m/m expected (prior +0.6%) - Core common +1.9% vs 1.9% prior - Core median +2.1% vs +2.1% prior The core measures were all expected to tick higher but instead were flat or slightly lower. The entire report is a touch on the soft side and that isn't going to give the BOC much confidence. However, there is another inflation report before the May Bank of Canada decision.

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Canada March CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% expected


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
20
Canada March consumer price index data - Prior was +2.2% - CPI +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% m/m expected (prior +0.6%) - Core common +1.9% vs 1.9% prior - Core median +2.1% vs +2.1% prior The core measures were all expected to tick higher but instead were flat or slightly lower. The entire report is a touch on the soft side and that isn't going to give the BOC much confidence. However, there is another inflation report before the May Bank of Canada decision.

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Author: Adam Button
1

Canada February retail sales +0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expected

Canada February retail sales data - was +0.3% (revised to +0.1%) - Prior ex autos +0.9% (revised to +1.0%) The ex-autos number is poor and it comes with a weak CPI reading. All in all, USD/CAD is higher and that's the right reaction to the numbers.

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Canada February retail sales +0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expected


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
1
Canada February retail sales data - was +0.3% (revised to +0.1%) - Prior ex autos +0.9% (revised to +1.0%) The ex-autos number is poor and it comes with a weak CPI reading. All in all, USD/CAD is higher and that's the right reaction to the numbers.

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Author: Adam Button
6

OPEC's Barkindo responds to Trump: We saved the oil industry

Comments from Barkindo - The OPEC/non-OPEC agreement rescued the oil industry from imminent collapse - The OPEC-led supply cut deal has not only arrested the decline, but rescued the industry Well now that's taking it too far. The oil industry wasn't doing great, but it wasn't collapsing. However, there probably would have been a total lack of investment and you would have ended up with much higher prices later.

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OPEC's Barkindo responds to Trump: We saved the oil industry


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
6
Comments from Barkindo - The OPEC/non-OPEC agreement rescued the oil industry from imminent collapse - The OPEC-led supply cut deal has not only arrested the decline, but rescued the industry Well now that's taking it too far. The oil industry wasn't doing great, but it wasn't collapsing. However, there probably would have been a total lack of investment and you would have ended up with much higher prices later.

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Author: Adam Button
19

Trump rails against OPEC

Calls prices artificially high This tweet doesn't make a lot of sense, but it is 4/20 after all.

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Trump rails against OPEC


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
19
Calls prices artificially high This tweet doesn't make a lot of sense, but it is 4/20 after all.

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Author: Adam Button
7

Canadian CPI and retail sales are coming up

Canadian data on the docket USD/CAD is a quarter-cent lower on the day to 1.2646 but the drama has just begun. At the bottom of the hour, we will get February retail sales and March CPI. For retail sales, focus on ex-autos, which are forecast to rise 0.4%.

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Canadian CPI and retail sales are coming up


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
7
Canadian data on the docket USD/CAD is a quarter-cent lower on the day to 1.2646 but the drama has just begun. At the bottom of the hour, we will get February retail sales and March CPI. For retail sales, focus on ex-autos, which are forecast to rise 0.4%.

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Author: Giles Coghlan

Fate of the single currency to be decided by forthcoming ECB meeting: Correct link for FxPro seminar here.

 Apologies Link correction for Webinar - Here is the correct one.

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Fate of the single currency to be decided by forthcoming ECB meeting: Correct link for FxPro seminar here.


Author: Giles Coghlan
Category: News
0
 Apologies Link correction for Webinar - Here is the correct one.

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Author: Forex Live
2

Fate of the single currency to be decided by forthcoming ECB meeting

Article provided by FxPro, an industry-leading online broker regulated by the FCA. The ECB will be choosing their words carefully at their forthcoming monetary policy meeting. It is likely that the wording used will determine the future direction of the single currency, which has been trading in a range against the U.S. dollar for the past 3 months

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Fate of the single currency to be decided by forthcoming ECB meeting


Author: Forex Live
Category: News
2
Article provided by FxPro, an industry-leading online broker regulated by the FCA. The ECB will be choosing their words carefully at their forthcoming monetary policy meeting. It is likely that the wording used will determine the future direction of the single currency, which has been trading in a range against the U.S. dollar for the past 3 months

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