The world’s gone poll barmy.
Aside from the UK, Bloomers has done a survey on the eurozone too.
On the question of when economists saw the next cut in the main rate from the ECB 100% of 30 respondents said “Never”, although in the main they referred to this cycle rather than never ever ever.
1/28 sees another cut in the deposit rate in Q1 2015 while the other 27 say “never” for that also.
On rate increases 2016 & 2017 are the main choices
- 2015 13%
- 2016 45%
- 2017 39%
- 2018 3%
On any potential ABS program 44% see it happening in 2014, 50% in 2015 and 6% say never. QE has 15% seeing it coming in 2014 with 31% saying 2015 and 54% say no QE whatsoever.
So how do people see the European economy in the next four weeks?
- 14% see improvement
- 10% see it getting worse
- 76% see no change
Mario Draghi gets a vote of confidence as 86% of pollsters say that his announcements in June and July have strengthened his forward guidance on interest rates. 14% say he’s had no effect.
Also in the survey are the prospects for Germany and France
German annualised GDP is unchanged for 2014 but has been lowered all the way out to Q1 2015
- Q2 2014 unch 1.8%
- Q3 2014 1.9% vs 2.0% prior
- Q4 2014 2.0% vs 2.15 prior
- Q1 2015 1.7% vs 1.8% prior
2014 CPI remains unchanged at 1.0% Q2, 0.9% Q3, 1.3% Q3, 1.5% Q1 2015
French GDP has been lowered slightly for Q3 2014 while the rest is unchanged
- Q2 0.4%
- Q3 0.7% vs 0.8% prior
- Q4 0.8%
- Q1 2015 1.2%
If anything surveys give us a snapshot of sentiment in the market and often we can see that reflected in price movements and positioning. Match these surveys up against the COT report for example and they align pretty well.
