Its not just the FOMC this week, BoE also meeting (June 20).
What to expect, in brief via TD:
- Recent data shows slower Q2 growth but continued pressure on costs and inflation, in part due to an ever-tight labour market. A dissent for a hike is possible given recent Saunders/Haldane comments, but it's not our base case. All eyes on the Q2 nowcast. Carney speaks later in his last Mansion House speech, which he's used in the past to signal policy preferences.
Also, via Oxford economics:
Developments since May suggest that the Committee's tone may become more dovish
- April's 0.4% fall in GDP
- CPI inflation in May came in slightly below the MPC's expectation
- total pay growth has slowed
- the Conservative leadership election and the spread of Brexit views among candidates has done nothing to dampen uncertainty over what form the UK's departure from the EU will ultimately take.
Signs that the global interest rate cycle could be heading down may also temper hawkish instincts among Committee members.
we still expect a unanimous 9-0 vote to keep policy on hold in June's meeting and, given continued Brexit uncertainty, that Bank Rate will not rise until Q2 2020
