Expectations are near-unanimous that there will be no change of any note to policy at this meeting (June 24)
Brief comments via Scotia (from a longer piece, this in summary)
- May meeting:
- Recall that the MPC decided to reduce the flow of gilts purchases to £3.4B/week while leaving the size of the gilt purchase program unchanged at £875B so that they could stick to prior guidance that they will keep buying until the end of 2021.
- It's unclear that the BoE would view it as being worthwhile to offer further adjustments to the stock and flow of its gilts purchase program given its expiration by year-end anyway.
- The more meaningful debate concerns when the policy rate may begin to lift off. Markets are sensibly pricing rate hikes into Q2 of next year which roughly coincides with the BoE's forecast for spare capacity to shut
