From Barclay’s “Global Traders’ Guide” for April 25 – a look at the key data events for the week beginning April 28 – it’s a big week! Adam, too, posted earlier of what to watch for next week, here.

Barclays look at the key data events for the week beginning April 28:

US

  • We believe the FOMC will decide to taper the pace of its asset purchases by another $10bn, split evenly between Treasuries and agency MBS (Wed.).
  • We look for GDP growth of 2.0% q/q saar in the advance Q1 estimate (Wed.; consensus: 1.1%; last: 2.6%).
  • We project Apr. nonfarm payrolls to rise by 250k (Fri.; consensus: 210k; last: 192k).
  • We and the consensus estimate that the Apr. unemployment rate fell to 6.6% (last: 6.7%).
  • We expect that Mar. personal income and personal spending increased by 0.6% m/m each (Thu.; consensus: 0.4% and 0.6% respectively; last: 0.3% both).
  • We look for a decline in the Apr. manufacturing ISM to 53.0 (Thu.; consensus: 54.2; last: 53.7).

Europe

  • We and the consensus project euro area “flash” Apr. HICP to climb to 0.8% y/y (Wed.; last: 0.5%).
  • We forecast Germany, Italy and Spain “flash” Apr. HICP to climb to 1.3% y/y (Tue.; consensus: 1.3%; last: 0.9%), 0.6% y/y (Wed.; consensus: 0.5%; last: 0.3%) and 0.4% y/y (Wed.; last: -0.2%), respectively.
  • We and the consensus expect that the euro area Mar. unemployment rate remained stable for the fifth consecutive month at 11.9% (Fri.).
  • We estimate that France Mar. household consumer spending rebounded by 1.3% m/m (Wed.; consensus: 0.2%; last: 0.1%).

In the UK

  • We expect that Q1 real GDP grew 0.7% q/q, consistent with 3.0% y/y growth (Tue.; consensus: 0.9% and 3.2% respectively; last: 0.7% and 2.7% respectively).
  • We and the consensus forecast Apr. consumer confidence to improve to -4 (Wed.; last: -5).
  • We project the Apr. manufacturing PMI to edgeup to 55.8 (Thu.; consensus: 55.5; last: 55.3).
  • We estimate that Mar. mortgage lending went up by £1.4bn and that consumer credit went up by £0.6bn (Thu.; consensus: £1.7bn and £0.7bn; last: £1.7bn and £0.6bn respectively).
  • We expect that Mar. mortgageapprovals increased to 72.8k (consensus: 72.5; last: 70.3k).
  • We forecast the Apr. nationwide house price index to edge up by 0.5% m/m (Thu.; consensus: 0.5%; last: 0.4%).
  • We project the Apr. construction PMI to edge up to 63.0 (Fri.; consensus: 62.2; last: 62.5).

Japan

  • We expect that Mar. IP increased 0.5% m/m (Wed.; consensus: 0.5%; last: -2.3%), and accelerated q/q in Q1. The Apr. and May METI forecasts will provide a signal on production activity after the VAT hike.
  • The BoJ will hold a monetary policy meeting and publish the semi-annual Outlook Report on 30 April. The BoJ remains above Barclays and consensus in its forecasts for FY 13-14 GDP growth and FY 14-15 CPI inflation. We expect a downward revision to the former and the latter to be left largely intact highlighting a possible upward shift in the Phillips curve. Under this scenario, we believe the BoJ is highly unlikely to ease further on 30 Apr.

China

  • We expect China’s Apr. NBS manufacturing PMI to edge up to 50.4 (Thu.; consensus: 50.5; last: 50.3)

More:

  • Korea’s Apr. exports to rise 5.0% y/y (Thu.; consensus: 5.2%; last: 5.1%).
  • We forecast that Taiwan’s Q1 GDP grew 3.6% y/y (Wed.; consensus: 3.1%; last: 3.0%).
  • We project that Indonesia Mar. trade surplus was USD0.5bn (Fri.; consensus:USD0.7bn last: USD0.8bn).

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