The Bank of Japan's dilemma, say Barclays in their note, is Japan's growth- inflation gap
In brief, the points Barclays make (bolding mine):
Real GDP grew 4.0% q/q saar in Q2 & in Q1: 1.5%
- sharply exceeding market expectations
- Although some of this was attributable to public demand, private- sector domestic demand also continued to strengthen, led by private consumption
But ... inflation:
The GDP deflator ... fell 0.4% y/y (Q1: -0.8%), undershooting the previous year's level for a fourth consecutive quarter
- This included a continuing slump in the domestic demand deflator
- and the private consumption deflator, which is closely correlated with CPI inflation
The growth-inflation gap evident even in the GDP data presents a dilemma for the BoJ, which has stuck to a price stability target that appears difficult to reach
'Normalisation' of policy, or at least the initial step, is still a long way off say Barclays:
- We forecast that the BoJ will take a first step toward normalizing monetary policy by slightly raising its target for long-term yields in Q3 18
And, on the inflation target, Barclays believes:
- it will also have to introduce some flexibility around its inflation target
-
I dunno about Barclays but I reckon the prospects of the BOJ revising its inflation target will come sooner rather than later, and not as far off as Q3 2018.
-
Barclays goes on with a few more points:
- government's approval rating ... a recovery in support may depend heavily on parliamentary proceedings during the extraordinary Diet session to get underway from end- September
- possibility that PM Abe will dissolve the lower house and call a general election while the opposition is on its back foot
- possibility the new Cabinet will lean toward populist policy measures in a bid to restore support
- For now, labor market reforms and other structural reforms entailing short-term pain could be put on the back burner
- the prospect of the consumption tax being raised according to plan in October 2019 appears highly uncertain at this stage given the political schedule, which includes a lower house election (December 2018 unless dissolved early) and an upper house election (July 2019)