Robert Watt or Philip Lane to lead the Irish central bank

The Irish representative on the ECB governing council is down to Robert Watt and Philip Lane, the Irish Times reports.

Normally, we don't take an extreme interest in central bank nominations without any extreme characters on the docket but this one grabbed our attention because Irish gambling website Paddy Power was taking bets on who would win.

On Wednesday Bloomberg reported that it was down to two candidates and one of them was Robert Watt; the other was unnamed but at the time Phillip Lane and Mary O'Dea were known to be among the final four.

The odds didn't quickly adjust to show that Watt was around a 50/50 proposition and they were still taking bets at 7/2. I pointed out the discrepancy and suggested laying down some money on Watt. There would have been a cheap hedge with Lane and O'Dea as well.

After the post, the ForexLive Armytm went into action and began to put heavy bets on Watt.

In a few hours the price dropped to 6/5, then 1/6 and then betting was suspended due to "a rush of money for Robert Watt", according to Paddy Power.

"The money we've seen this morning would suggest that it's a done deal which is why we've pulled the plug ahead of any formal announcement," they said.

It won't be long before we get an answer. Irish Minister for Finance Michael Noonan will deliver his budget on Monday and plans to announce the winner shortly in the following week.

Robert Watt:

  • Formerly in the Department of Finance
  • Secretary general of the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform
  • Previously at Indecon Economic Consultants
  • Previously at London Economics

Philip Lane:

  • Whately professor of political economy at Trinity College Dublin
  • PhD in economics from Harvard and was professor of international macroeconomics at TCD before taking up his current position in 2012.