CBA forecast the RBA to cut the cash rate in August and November this year

Latest update from Commonwealth bank of Australia

In summary:

RBA lowered its NAIRU estimate

• will mean mon pol needs to be eased further to push u/e rate towards 4.5%

Australian economy fundamentals decent

• H2 economic growth to lift

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In the report CBA once again refer to QE (posted on this last week, here)

• Here is how far AUD would fall if the RBA introduced Quantitative Easing (QE) in Australia

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ps, here is what CBA are watching for the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes (June meeting) due today at 0130GMT:

• June meeting where the RBA lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points
• The RBA have emphasised the need to bring the unemployment rate lower to push inflation back up to target
• We expect the RBA to out the cash rate again to 1.0% in August. We will be looking for any commentary that may suggest that the RBA wil move sooner than this.