A brief snippet from a Deutsche Bank note on the Fed (and ECB):

  • The previous rate cut easing cycle had the Federal Reserve beginning to ease at above 5%
  • And for the European Central Bank, 4%

But now:

  • The problem is, the bottom is not very far
  • This is not an environment where previous easing cycles can be trusted to stick to the same playbook as before

This may serve to keep the USD from falling too far, as many analysts have been forecasting for this easing cycle.