A real quick snippet via Barclays on the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee meeting this wee.

In very brief:

  • Fed is likely to again convey that the economy is doing well and gradually raising rates is the best way to sustain the expansion
  • We see the risk of a move higher in the "dots" for the next couple of years, even as the long-run "dots" potentially move lower

A little more:

  • Economic data in the US seem solid
  • wage gains now at cycle highs
  • our economists are tracking 3.2% real GDP growth in Q3 (led by personal consumption and public spending) which will likely push full-year 2018 growth forecasts to about 3%
  • Inflation data have been somewhat weaker
  • Overall, the economic and financial backdrops remain strong enough for the Fed to continue to push ahead with normalization confidently
  • median "dots" are likely to remain unchanged, with a risk of a move higher in the dots for 2019/20

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The FOMC statement will come at 1800GMT on September 26

  • Consensus is for a 25bp hike
  • Fed will release the updated summary of economic projections (SEP)