A note from Goldman Sachs Japan Chief Economist
- Some in financial markets believe the Japanese government may soon declare deflation is beaten
Buts GS says such a claim is not likely soon
- Says government looking at CPI, GDP deflator, output gap, and unit labor costs as metrics to judge when deflation has ended
- Even when satisfied, the government will want to link declaration of the end to deflation with an important political event - a "golden opportunity to publicly promote the success of Abenomics"
And ...
- "Even if the government were to declare an exit from deflation, we believe the BOJ would need to maintain its current easing policy over the long term, continuously chasing the 2% inflation target"
via Bloomberg