From Goldman Sachs on the FOMC Minutes released today:
GS' 'bottom line':
The June FOMC minutes were broadly consistent with the dovish shift apparent from the June FOMC meeting. Fed officials made note of international developments several times, in particular with regard to Greece and China. In both areas, developments subsequent to the meeting have been less favorable. We see the content of the June minutes was broadly consistent with our call for a first hike in December.
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1. Regarding the timing of the first rate hike:
- "many" participants felt that the criteria for starting to normalize policy had not yet been met
- "some" viewed the criteria as having been met or likely to be met shortly
- Overall, members saw conditions as "continuing to approach those consistent with warranting a start to the normalization of the stance of monetary policy."
- Fed officials stuck to their prior guidance that a decision regarding the first hike would be made on a "meeting-by-meeting basis
2. On growth
- Staff downgraded their forecast in H2 slightly
- Fed officials' views on H2 were little changed
- Downside risks ... the discussion of international developments was slightly dovish, including a number of references to concern about economic and financial developments associated with Greece and China. Since the meeting, developments have probably been less favorable than expected
3. Labor market outlook indicated that things were broadly on track
- Minutes referred to a "firming of wage increases"
- GS notes that information released since the meeting-in particular the disappointing June average hourly earnings print and back revisions-suggests a murkier story regarding the wage trend
4. Inflation
- Outlook was generally regarded as a bit more positive, with participants citing the stabilization in oil prices and the exchange value of the dollar as reducing downward pressure on inflation
- A few participants upgraded their subjective risk assessment on the inflation outlook
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5. The minutes indicated that around the time of the first hike, the FOMC would begin releasing a completely separate operational statement coincident with its policy statement. We assume the operational statement would include information such as the level of interest paid on excess reserves, the floor rate on the overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility, and perhaps the usage cap on the RRP facility. In this way, if an operational tweak were to become necessary, it is less likely that any change would be misperceived as a change in the stance of monetary policy.
6. On a technical note, the minutes stated that the calculation of the daily fed funds effective rate would be changed from a mean to a median calculation "next year." (A companion statement from the New York Fed indicated a change "in the first few months of 2016.") Such a change would probably result in slightly lower volatility in the daily effective rate.