Reuters released a poll of primary dealers.
- 12 of 17 say Fed to eventually announce more QE
- 8 of those forecast it will take place in H1
- Estimates range from $400B-$800B (QE currently at approx $2T)
- 8 of 15 dealers see first Fed hike in H1 2014
These numbers are a bit of a shock to me because the Fed has set a very high bar for QE3 and the ecodata is improving. But if it’s priced in to this extent and doesn’t happen, the US dollar could have major room to run.
