Not waiting for Fed Chair Powell to speak at Jackson Hole (Friday 23rd August at 1400 GMT) Standard Chartered with a call on what to expect from the FOMC:

Fed funds target rate

  • adding a 25bps cut in September (we expect two dissents again)
  • We continue to forecast a cut in December, as well

Stan Chart citing:

  • heightened trade uncertainty
  • ongoing deterioration in global growth

US economic fundamentals remain solid, for now

  • strong labour market and consumer spending
  • However, both coincident and leading indicators from the goods sector have been deteriorating."

"Core inflation remains below the FOMC's medium-term 2% objective...

  • we expect the policy stance to remain dovish until either trade and growth concerns abate, core inflation tops 2% or wage growth tops 3.5% y/y, roughly the latest cycle's peak."