Draghi is between a rock and a hard place
Draghi has two options: 1) Make a hawkish shift now, or 2) make a hawkish shift later.
The market knows it. The market has known it for months and that's why every euro dip is bought. Even if you get the timing wrong, you get the direction right so it's only a matter of waiting it out.
If you look at CFTC positioning, euro longs have been growing steadily since May when Macron won the election.
Draghi has tried to keep a cap on the euro throughout this period but to no avail. Since May it's risen to 1.1875 from 1.0900. The biggest dip in that period was 248 pips (high to low) this month.
Other dips have been limited to 100 pips. That's a good guide for what to expect today if he follows Yellen's footsteps and avoids monetary policy, or if he maintains a wait-and-see tone.
Alternatively, he could drop a hint -- even an inadvertent hint -- that the taper is imminent and that policy needs to be tighter because growth is picking up. I see a 50% chance of that.
So I really only see two outcomes: That he avoids monetary policy (or says nothing new) and the euro falls around 100 pips, the slowly climbs back over the week ahead. Or he finally opens the floodgates and says something hawkish. If that's the case, New York probably takes EUR/USD close to 1.20 before the close and Asia/Europe does the rest when the market reopens.
So buy-the-dips is the safe strategy but buying now with tolerance for a 150 pip retracement is a viable strategy as well.
