This is a great summary from ANZ (Global Head of Financial Market Research Richard Yetsenga):
On the AUD and NZD, the likely impact of a de-anchored yuan is 'Mildly bearish', with Yetsenga's rationale being:
- The USD/regional currency effect suggests downside, as does the generalised rise in volatility, but the (indeterminate) evolution of China's growth expectations would likely also be important
Following the same format (market, likely impact of a de-anchored yuan, rationale):
Yuan
- Bearish
- Depreciation expectations are currently the weak side of the market
Asian currencies
- Bearish
- Due to direct USD and trade competitiveness effects
Australian and NZ bonds
- Mildly bullish
- Any flow-through to US bonds will likely add a bid tone, but currency weakness should help ameliorate the impact
Commodities
- Mildly bearish
- Commodity price declines in the current cycle have been substantially driven by the slowdown in China and USD strength. USD strength would likely weaken commodities, but the evolution of China growth expectations would depend on the specific environment and the manner of the de-anchoring
US bonds
- Bullish
- The curve should flatten as a stronger USD somewhat erodes the need for Fed hikes
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What say the traders of ForexLive?