Is the Fed ready to hike or not?
The implied probability of a Fed hike as fallen to 38% in the Fed funds market, and the jerky moves in markets this week show that traders are confused.
Economists are trying to spin the Minutes as still-hawkish but that's because they have their credibility invested in their Sept rate hike calls.
If the Fed does want to send a quick message on rates, look to San Francisco Fed President Williams. He's in Indonesia at a conference and will speak at 0645 GMT (2:45 am ET).
One to probably disregard is ultra-dove Kocherlakota on Friday. Next week starts with Lockhart, who has been the leading hawk voter.
But the biggest event may be Jackson Hole beginning next Friday. Yellen won't be there but I wrote about why Jackson Hole is still a major event on Monday. A few Fed speakers will surely pop up on the schedule. and that will be used to fine tune expectations.
