Nomura changes forecast to a 25 bps hike on August 3
The market is pricing in just a 16.8% chance of a hike at the next meeting on August 3. Moreover, Carney said this just two days ago.
"From my perspective, given the mixed signals on consumer spending and business investment, and given the still subdued domestic inflationary pressures, in particular anaemic wage growth, now is not yet the time to begin that adjustment.
In the coming months, I would like to see the extent to which weaker consumption growth is offset by other components of demand, whether wages begin to firm, and more generally, how the economy reacts to the prospect of tighter financial conditions and the reality of Brexit negotiations."
Does less than six weeks qualify as "the coming months?". I don't think so. I mean, it's not impossible but it's going to take a string of great data between now and then.
