The latest poll of economists by the Wall Street Journal:
- About 73% of economists in the survey say Federal Reserve will first hike rates in September
- The April survey had 65%, while back in March it was 38%
- May's was conducted Friday through Tuesday (8/5 - 12/5 ... or 8/8 - 5/12 if you prefer it that way)
On the potential for a June 'lift-off':
- May survey says just 7% of economists expect it ... was 18% in April & 48% in March
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OK ... that's what the economists have to say.
But ... take note ...
Here are the FOMC meetings for 2015:
While there is a lot of focus on a June or September first hike ... please don't ignore the July meeting. Note in the table that the July meeting is not followed by a press conference from Janet Yellen. This is the reason so many are ignoring the possibility for a move in July. I can understand why they might be ignoring July on this basis ... BUT, many, many Federal Reserve officials have been explicit in saying that each and every meeting is 'live', not just those followed by a news conference. That goes for the October meeting too. So (and they've been saying this a lot too) - watch the data.
