The BoE meet today with an interest rate hike widely (but not unanimously) expected
ForexLive have posted a few previews already:
- Are you ready for Super Thursday from the UK? BoE preview (RBC)
- Early heads up preview for the Bank of England meeting (TD, Barclays, BNP Paribas)
- NIESR points on Thursday's BoE meeting
- Odds of a BOE hike sit at 90%
Thoughts continue to trickle in:
Morgan Stanley
- We see the MPC as having a hawkish bias: This reflects: i) The May Inflation Report forecast, which assumes that tightening - three hikes over three years - is required to hit the inflation target; ii) The assessment that there is virtually no slack left, given the judgement that full employment is at 4.25%, which is marginally above the current rate; and iii) New upside pressures on inflation, with GBP about 2% weaker and a large pay increase for public sector workers announced since the May Inflation Report, which we estimate will push pay up by 0.4pp and take headline pay above 3% 3M/Y in 2H18.
- The May decision to stay on hold was partly justified on the grounds that although 1Q weakness looked like it was a transient weather-related effect, the MPC saw a case for waiting for more data to make sure. Since then we have had an upgrade to 1Q growth and a rebound in 2Q growth, which we now see as tracking at the MPC's forecast of 0.4%Q, and likely running slightly above potential.
- Mixed signals on future action: We expect the MPC to estimate that the neutral rate in the UK at the moment is in the 2.5-2.75% range, slightly above Governor Carney's 2015 estimate. We see this as a hawkish signal on future action,
- We expect an 8-1 vote to hike, with Cunliffe the stand-out dove.
Nomura
- We expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates for a second time this cycle by 25bp. This is supported by the data - unlike in the run up to the August 2017 and May 2018 policy meetings the surprise index has not collapsed ahead of the forthcoming meeting.
- The Bank publishes its Inflation Report forecasts too - the focus as usual will be on the Bank's estimate of inflation towards the end of the horizon (i.e., two to three years ahead), but also on the Bank's thoughts on equilibrium interest rates. Recall that based on unchanged monetary policy the Bank saw inflation settling at a little over 2.35% in two to three years' time.
(bolding is mine)