WPAC's response to Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes, April 2019 meeting.
In summary from a detailed note:
- The Board has made a clear case for the benefits of lower interest rates, discounting arguments to suggest that it sees little benefit from lowering rates given the very low starting point.
- The Board also lays out clearly the conditions for lowering those rates around inflation and the labour market. It appears that it has resolved the uncertainty around the conflicting signals between growth and employment by favouring the labour market.
- While prospects for a policy response in May have disappeared, there is still ample time and data releases to justify our timing that there will be cash rate cuts in August and November.
WPAC sticking to August for a first cut.
Earlier:
- More on the RBA minutes ... so when do they cut?
- RBA April 2019 meeting minutes: Likelihood of near term rise in rates low
AUD traders … tune in tomorrow for the China data - big for the AUD:
