ANZ with the reminder that its not just all about the monetary policy meeting this week:
- Not only do we have the monthly Board meeting on Tuesday, but we also get the RBA's quarterly forecast update and policy statement on Friday, and the Governor is giving a speech on Thursday evening. All of which provides the RBA with plenty of opportunity to update its view.
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And, a real quickie on what ANZ is expecting:
- While the cash rate will remain on hold, we think the tone of the RBA commentary will be more upbeat after a positive run of data both domestically and globally. The higher AUD provides a bit of an offset and may see some refinement to the RBA's commentary around the currency, but its move in trade weighted terms since November is minimal and commodity prices are stronger so we don't think there will be that much concern about the impact of the higher AUD/USD.
- In terms of the RBA's forecasts the one substantive change we are looking for is a lower unemployment forecast. We think it is likely that the Bank will reduce the 2018 year-end forecast from 5½% to 5¼% and predict 5% by the end of the forecast period.
(bolding mine)
