The market sees a one-in-three chance of a hike
Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 33% chance of a September 21 hike compared to 25% yesterday. There is no meeting between then and now.
For year-end, the chance of a hike has risen to 53% from 47%.
A separate signal, from the bond market, is a slap in the face to the Fed. The long end is rallying, pushing yields down. That says that if the Fed wants to hike, it will be a mistake.
The yield fell on the announcement and remains near the lows. That's part of the reason why the US dollar hasn't been able to hold onto gains.
