The next Fed prediction that turns out to correct will be the first one.
But for now the bond market is taking forecasts that the Fed will hike rates at face value. Yesterday’s batch of estimates from the Fed showed the median prediction at the end of 2015 for Fed funds at 1.375% from 1.125% and continuing to rise through 2017.
The belly of the curve has pricing in more Fed hikes for a few weeks and broke out of a wedge formation to the highest since 2011 today.
5 year Treasury yields
The market wants to focus on the Fed but the latest round of yield rises started with better economic data and with an uber-cautious Fed chair, that’s where the focus will stay.
