The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1Q GDP growth has risen to 0.7% from 0.1%. In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.7 percent on February 8, up from 0.1 percent on February 1. After the February 1 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and first-quarter real government spending growth increased from 2.0 percent, -7.0 percent, and 1.3 percent, respectively, to 2.5 percent, -6.4 percent, and 1.6 percent, respectively.
Looking at the contributors and detractors since the last report on February 1, auto sales were a big boost. That increased the GDP estimates to 1.3% from 0.1%. The ISM data had minimal impact. The employment situation actually subtracted from GDP growth (despite the stronger than expected data), as did the trade data today..
For the full report and other information on the model CLICK HERE.
