Bloomberg convey the info in a note from JP Morgan on FOMC scenarios:
- An interest-rate hike plus statements suggesting policymakers will hold off at their next meeting could push the S&P 500 as much as 0.75% higher
- assigns a 65% probability for the central bank to raise interest rates this time and then stop
- “We think the Hike & Pause scenario is more likely with potential upside risks that the Fed may confirm the end of the cycle earlier at Jackson Hole,” (Jackson Hole is the Kansas City Fed’s annual policy forum scheduled in late August)
Bloomberg is gated, but you can access it at an ungated link, more here.
