Société Généralehas reiterated that its end of year forecast for EUR/USD in 2023 is 1.12.
But, say analysts at Soc Gen, they are aware that the currency is increasing considerably more quickly than we had anticipated. And that therefore they'd need to increase the projection to approximately 1.20 if the energy crisis is over. This is a difficult conclusion to draw though given the fact that the conflict in Ukraine is still raging and Russian gas flows to Europe have mostly stopped.
SG post:
- “No need for a risk premium due to the fragility of gas supplies?
- No doubts that the global LNG market can grow in time for next winter?
- Take out those concerns and European recession risks melt away, leaving all the focus on the ECB.”
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Indeed, Lagarde was beating the drum on sharply higher rates on Thursday, as was Knot. And the December meeting minutes didn't disappoint on that front either:
- Lagarde warns ECB doubters to "revise their positions"
- ECB's Lagarde: Inflation is way too high
- ECB's Knot says planning to hike rates by 50 bps 'multiple' times
- ECB December policy meeting account: Broad majority supported 50 bps rate hike
