JP Morgan on the US dollar:

  • USD ... the Fed call matters. Over the past few quarters Fed has consistently surprised by its hawkishness, and consequently the USD was strong.
  • We expect the Fed to become more sensitive to softer activity dataflow now that they have moved policy rates above what was historically considered as neutral.
  • September could be the last of the outsized Fed hikes.
  • We note the signs of peaking inflation, and of inflation forwards. Brent is sub 100, and it has historically strongly correlated with inflation breakevens.
European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane is speaking as part of a panel at 1350 GMT:

We hear from the Fed big guy on Friday: