- We cannot say today how much interest rates will need to go
- We need to get rates up to longer run neutral level as soon as practically possible
- We are all aligned that inflation is number 1 problem in the economy
- we can't say if we will need to pause at neutral or not until we see what the data is; we may have to go beyond neutral
- we have a good case that we could slow growth, bring inflation on downward trajectory and have labor market conditions remain healthy
- it's possible that by tightening financial conditions we will pull back on numbers of vacancies doubt having much effect on the unemployment rate
- it's going to take some time to be convinced inflation is on a downward path
- if inflation were to continue to stay high and expectations get unanchored, the Fed would have to really slam on the brakes. We don't want to be in that situation.
Remember when inflation was below the 2% target and officials said it would take a while for the Fed to conclude that inflation is on a upward path. The reverse is now the case.
With CPI still above 8% it will take a while to get inflation back to 2.0%. A 2% rate implies price rises of around 0.2% MoM.