RBNZ monetary policy decision and review due at 0200 GMT: 3 scenarios (& NZD implications)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to hike its official cash rate (OCR) by 50bp today:

• Wednesday, 13 July 2022
• due at 0200 GMT

Previews earlier:

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike decision coming today, +50bp the consensus estimate

• Economic calendar in Asia - Chinese trade data and the RBNZ interest rate announcement

• ANZ now forecast the RBNZ will hike 50bps in both July and August (previously 50 then 25)
• Poll shows the consensus for a 50bp interest rate hike from the RBNZ next week
• "Preview": Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to raise its official cash rate 50bps
• Risk for NZD at today's RBNZ meeting is lowering of the OCR peak - Credit Agricole

This via Westpac:

• Our “neutral” scenario (least likely to disturb the market) comprises a 50bp hike, and a statement signalling that the economy is evolving as expected.
• Our dovish scenario comprises a 50bp hike, and a statement which emphasises the downside risks to the global economy.
• Our hawkish scenario comprises a 50bp hike, and a statement which emphasises its concerns about high inflation and that inflation expectations could remain elevated.

WPAC see the implications for the NZD/USD as:

From left to right ... current spot .... $kiwi impact from a dovish scenario .... neutral .... hawkish