Bitcoin looked like it might crumble earlier this month after it fell through the December spike low of $42,101 but after a quick dip through $40,000, it steadied and then bounced to $44,451 last week.

Unfortunately, it's back in the morass and under some modest pressure today, falling 3% and back below the December low.

So long as we stay in this range, I don't think there is much to read into today's move. But in the bigger picture, the inability to rally recently on the better risk trade along with the major head-and-shoulders pattern on the chart are cause for concern. I fear that if we see a slump in the overall mood, bitcoin could dive.