Perhaps what worries me most about broad markets are Tesla and bitcoin.
I'd argue that these two, not FAANG, are the real generals of the tech bull market in the last 7-8 years. We've seen the pandemic stocks come undone and the Nasdaq is down 23% but the charts in both Tesla and bitcoin are now strained.
For bitcoin, we've now broken the January low and confirmed the false breakout in late March. That opens up a world of downside with $30,000 and the 2021 lows near $28,800 as key support levels.
Given where sentiment is, I can see it crumbling down to 20,000 is a true rout. In assets without defined earnings, there's really no bottom and now way to justify a particular level. So it's a sentiment trade.
Ultimately, I think the US consumer is in good shape and that China will eventually exit covid controls. But it's tough to fight the tape until we get a clear view on the Fed's terminal level. Along those lines, this week's CPI report will be big.
