Even great generals can lose a war
I was looking through some old files and found this one, which I saved for posterity for some reason. Hardly a day goes by where some analyst or another doesn’t predict a headline-grabbing change in markets, yesterday it was Carl Ichan.
John Taylor is/was a legend in FX but calls like this were his undoing. FXConcepts was once a $14 billion fund but declared bankruptcy last year.
FXConcepts research note entitled ‘This is The End’
The euro was at 1.30 when this was published, it hit 1.3360 within a week and 1.49 in nine months. Stocks fell 5% by the end of August but then rallied 30% through Feb 2011.