Bitcoin no longer a reliable indicator of the crypto market?
Bitcoin surrenders its role as a crypto market indicator to Ether. The crypto market remains a distance away from the highs reached earlier this week. Bitcoin has changed little in price over the past 24 hours, losing 0.2% and adding around 3.8% over the past seven days.
The Dollar's steady advance in global currency markets and the pullback in equity indices from their lows are signalling a drop in risk appetite. The slippage in cryptocurrencies with a rising dollar looks like a nasty display of institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. They have taken their place on the risk asset spectrum, at the top end of it.
A stronger US currency generates measured profit-taking, sometimes seen in liquid stocks or bonds, without causing sharp dips or destroying the outwardly optimistic picture.
The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index retreated slightly further to 74 versus 78 yesterday and 84 earlier on Tuesday. These are still high levels, but they are not rising demand, as is evident from the cryptocurrency market dynamics. The overall capitalisation of the crypto market has virtually frozen, hovering around 2.84 trillion, indicating that all major movements in the crypto market are now a zero-sum game.
However, this play is now to the benefit of Ether, which continues to see an increase in buying on downturns. ETHUSD is now only 2.5% below peak levels and remains in a tight rising corridor. The chart of ETHUSD reflects the increasing interest in the currency, with the RSI index on the daily candlesticks wandering on the edge of overbought levels without crossing it.
Bitcoin's chart has likely become too "noisy" to remain a reliable indicator of the crypto market, conceding that role to Ether. If so, a break of this strong upward trend could prove to be the first signal of a correction. The upside trend will be broken when the price fixes below 4500 at the end of the day or, better yet, the week. A persistence within this channel would indicate further buying.
This article was submitted by FxPro's Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich.