What are the August seasonal trends in markets?
A look at the seasonal trends in August markets
At the start of July I wrote about some seasonal trends.
This was a winner with the S&P 500 rising 1.3%, even with yesterday's decline.
Through the first three weeks of July this was a great trade with NZD up 1.3%, AUD up 1.0% and CAD up 0.1%. However in the past week all three trades gave it all back (and more).
The post noted that it was the worst month of the year for USD/JPY. That didn't hold up but the range for USD/JPY was very hight on the month and the pair finished up about 50 pips.
Overall, it wasn't a great performance from the seasonals but I'd argue they were overwhelmed by the Fed.
In August, central banks will be less of a factor with no ECB, BOE or Fed decisions on the agenda.
Here are six seasonal highlights:
- Weakest month for NZD/USD
- 2nd weakest month of the year for CAD
- 2nd weakest month of the year for AUD/USD
- 2nd weakest month for cable
- 2nd strongest month for gold
- The poorest month over the past decade for the S&P 500