The AUD has been in the thrall of the Euro longs unwinding for the past 24 hours. There has been a good deal of EUR selling/AUD buying. It is curious that with all of the AUD buying the AUD/USD has not been able to get any higher than the 1.0440/50 resistance we pointed out a number of times yesterday. So, while the buying has been large, so, it seems, has been the selling.
There has been little in the way of overnight news (aside from the usual jabbering from politicians, signifying nothing) hitting the market.
So now, it seems, we wait for the RBA decision, scheduled to be delivered at 0330GMT. The Cash Rate Target is very much expected to be left unchanged. The RBA has been known to surprise the market from time to time. I’m not expecting a surprise today, though (I don’t actually think its possible to expect a surprise, is it? Then it wouldn’t be a surprise …). With expectations so low for any change from the RBA today, the accompanying statement will be closely examined for clues about expected future intentions.
1.0410/15 to 1.0440/50 are levels to watch ahead of the meeting in the AUD/USD.
EUR/USD movements may impact on the AUD through EUR/AUD, so EUR must also be watched.
Outside of 1.0410/50 be aware of 1.0470/80 and 1.0365/75.
