I posted on what to expect today a little earlier. The Melbourne Cup is a key focus, bank traders will be entertaining clients today and markets in OZ will be thinly traded.

The RBA (due 0330GMT) is a 50/50 decision. Careers (and egos) are on the line to get the call right on what they'll do. But, if you're a trader, and you think trading is a probability game then you might want to reflect on what a 50/50 probability means. If you really must have a call, there is a useful tool, here.

Stop losses will drive moves over the RBA decision. I'll be back with an update to the boards just ahead of the announcement. Once the announcement is in, let the whipping begin.

Orderboards ...

AUD/USD

  • Sellers 0.7150, with stops building above here. Sellers again 0.7180/00
  • Stops under 0.7130, Buyers 0.7100

Currently 0.7149

-

NZD/USD

  • Sellers 0.6790/00, stops above
  • Buyers 0.6725, under here stops with Buyers again 0.6700

Currently 0.6740