Oil starts February strong

Oil starts February strong

The worst time of the year is over for oil.

WTI crude has one of the strongest seasonal patterns of anything. There's a period of weakness late in the year that turns into strength in February.

The buying came early this year on account of the sharp drop to $42 in December but oil is still a long way from from where it was in October ($76.90).

The good news is that the seasonal tailwind stretches from Feb through April in a fairly consistent pattern.

Technically, WTI is brushing against the important 38.2% retracement of the Oct-Dec drop. If it can get through there isn't much in the way until the 50% level and the 100-day moving average, both near $60.