Citi continues to see a 90% chance Greece will leave the euro in 12-18 months. They also say a Spanish restructuring is a material risk, but not the most likely outcome.
Intrade has the probability of a country leaving the euro by the end of 2013 at 46%.
Another proxy (perhaps flawed) for a euro breakup is the share price of De La Rue, which is the world’s largest currency printing outfit. They’re down 9.2% from the 3-year high set in late August but still up 80% since late 2010.
