JPM 2014 USD/JPY forecasts at:

  • 104 in Q1,
  • 100 in Q2,
  • 102 in Q3
  • and 106 in Q4

Says:

  • Japan will almost certainly fail to meet its 2% inflation target, which will prompt further BoJ easing in April

“Japan’s slowdown is trickier to link to a USD/JPY trend since the hit to growth from the consumption tax (Q2 2014 real GDP -4.5%) will be partly offset by increased fiscal spending plus additional BoJ easing in April (¥1 trn of ETF purchases plus ¥10 trn of JGBs) … So this unusually uneven growth profile – probably the most erratic of any globally – is more a tactical risk to bullish USD/JPY view”

eFX

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Added also: Deutsche Bank’s forecasts for USD/JPY in 2014