When is the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium?
This year it takes place from August 21 to August 23. The schedule will be released Aug 21 but might leak out early.
The Jackson Hole event is often a time when the Federal Reserve makes a hint about changes monetary policy. The most famous recent example was Ben Bernanke first hinting at QE2 for the first time in 2010. Bernanke later soured on the event and didn’t attend last year but it was still a marquee event and CNBC’s Steve Liesman made headlines when he said that most FOMC members were favoring a September taper (the taper didn’t come until Dec).
The playbook for trading Fed events for the past three months has been identical: Expect US dollar strength in the lead-up to any announcement or appearance on fears of a hawkish shift … but there are no guarantees afterwards. Yellen had successfully tamed the doves so far but the power has begin to shift as a flood of better data has led the market to conclude that the Fed can’t stay on the sidelines forever.
Look to buy the US dollar a few days before the beginning of the conference but cover before it begins.
