The GBPUSD is also up on the day, benefiting from the USD weakness (no Fed change in tone/policy expectations). The pair has moved above the 1.5734 to 1.5740 area. This has been old highs and lows going back to mid-November. It also takes the price above the value area where most of the trading has taken place over the last month of trading.
The GBPUSD is trying to extend higher and stay above the value area.
Over the last 3 trading days, the price has been able to extend above this area on each of the days, however the moves have been brief. I would expect that traders will keep a short leash on this move higher as well. Stay above and the buyers remain in control. Move below and those buyers could shift to the sell side.
Taking a broader look at the action in the GBPUSD on the hourly chart, shows that most of the trading over the last month has been center between 1.5618 and 1.5740. There have been moves outside of those ranges, but each has been rejected. This non-trending dynamic eventually will give way to a break and a move away.
Today’s range is large at 179 pips – which is well above the 108 average range over the last 22 trading days. However, there are a lot of external factors impacting the market today. So do not rule out additional upside potential if those factors continue to support the dollar bearish story (which is stocks down, pressure on the RUB, oil prices pressured, etc).
Having said that there tends to be a line in the sand for traders between a more bullish bias and a more bearish bias – even on an intraday basis. I would think that the 1.5734 – – 1.5740 area might be that line in the sand for traders today.
