Ahead of the RBA minutes today, Barclays 'maintain our view of no rate cuts' (applies to the RBNZ too)
Reserve Bank of Australia minutes due at 0130GMT on Tuesday 16 April 2019Earlier::
Barclays are focused on data from Australia and New Zealand this, their outlook for the two central banks:
NZ inflation and Australia labour market data unlikely to support case for cuts
- data this week are unlikely to support market pricing of near-term rate cuts (the May meetings of the RBNZ and RBA are priced at -8bp and -4bp, respectively).
- We maintain our view of no rate cuts from either central bank.
For today's minutes:
- The RBA April meeting minutes will be published on Tuesday, but should be discounted, given last week's speech by Deputy Governor Guy Debelle that outlined the bank's latest, and largely unchanged, thinking.
- Debelle reiterated uncertainty about the housing wealth effect and that recent weakness in consumption has been driven by low household income that is likely to recover.
For more on AUD and NZD from earlier:
- Goldman Sachs technical analysis of the Australian dollar - AUD/USD basing?
- Westpac update the AUD, NZD outlook - eyeing RBNZ, Fed