ANZ do not expect the RBA to cut in October
There are plenty of Reserve Bank of Australia opinions all over the place:
- Westpac are tipping a cut: Westpac forecasting an RBA rate cut on October 6
- NAB are also, but say October or November: NAB expects further RBA easing as soon as the first week of October
- CBA are a no: CBA is forecasting the RBA on hold at the next meeting
- Australian RBA watcher Terry McCrann in the local press yesterday said there is no good reason for the RBA to make such an - essentially symbolic or 'tidying up' - cut.
- WSJ says RBA will not cut the cash rate at the October meeting
ANZ now (bolding mine):
- There have been a number of surprises this week. First up the market has reached the judgment that the prospect of a 'micro' rate cut in October or November is very real. The level of the Apr-24 bond implies that after Debelle's speech this week the market sees the chance of a cut as close to 40%.
- We don't think the RBA will move in October, but this pricing seems broadly fair given its continued reference to the additional options at its disposal.