ASB dial back their RBNZ rate hike expectations

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

ASB are expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand  to stay on hold through 2019 and 2020

  • Previously the bank had forecast a rate hike in Q3 of 2020
  • rates are still going higher, just not via the OCR
  • Interest rates are currently very low and stimulating the economy
  • RBNZ will continue to want to reduce this stimulus over time as economic spare capacity reduces and inflation pressures lift back to the inflation target mid-point
  • the risks are skewed to the OCR not needing to increase much, if at all
  • we continue to expect that retail interest rates and borrowing costs for NZ households and businesses will increase over 2021 and 2022. We believe the RBNZ's initial analysis of its proposed capital requirements may be underestimating the potential economic impact from these changes, and so we expect to see little mention of their potential monetary policy impact the February MPS
(bolding mine - rates higher via increased RBNZ capital requirements on the banks)

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