Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for third-quarter growth stays steady at 3.7%

Author: Greg Michalowski | Category: Central Banks

The model remains unchanged after inventory data

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model for GDP is showing an unchanged reading of 3.7% for the third quarter after today's economic data. In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.7percent on September 10, unchanged from September 2 after rounding. After the September 2 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 19.3 percent to 19.1 percent after rounding.

The next report will be released on September 16

If you're looking for the GDP estimate from the New York Fed, day suspended there weekly report after the jobs report and released the following statement:

The model remains unchanged after inventory data_
There is nothing worse than when the model has to be revised to a newer model. The kind of takes the faith and trust from the models calculations. Let's face it, the Covid numbers from last year will overlap to the unusual numbers this year which will then overlap to unusual numbers next year. That makes you wonder if the oscillation from the swings in the data from one year to the next will work its way out sometime soon or will this continue on?
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