Reopen growth strong
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 2Q GDP growth dipped to 10.5% from 11% on May 7.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 10.5 percent on May 14, down from 11.0 percent on May 7. After recent releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 10.5 percent to 8.6 percent was partly offset by increases in second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and second-quarter real government spending growth from 27.5 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, to 32.5 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.
The next estimate will come on Tuesday, May 18.
Earlier, the weekly New York Fed Nowcast estimate for 2Q growth came in much weaker at 4.9% vs 5.07% last week.
The models in determining growth at the respective regional Fed offices, have been turned upside down as a result of the pandemic and reopening. It is still early in the 2Q growth lifecycle (the 1st cut of 2Q GDP will not be released until the end of July and there will be 2 other revisions). So although the models are both showing above trend growth, the spread is quite wide for now.
