Growth stays at 2.3% for the 3rd report in a row
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for the 4th quarter remains unchanged at 2.3%.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on January 10, unchanged from January 7 after rounding. After this morning's release of the employment report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.4 percent and -2.5 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and -2.7 percent, respectively.
The next report will be on Thursday, January 16.
Earlier today, the weekly New York Fed Nowcast for the same 4Q growth dipped to 1.1% from 1.2% last week (really moved from 1.16% to 1.11% this week. The NY Fed growth forecast has been consistently below the Atlanta Fed.
PS. the Blue Chip consensus (see Atlanta Fed chart above) for GDP growth comes in at 2.0%. The blue Chip consensus is calculated from the range of top 10 and top bottom average forecasts.
