AUD traders - heads up for RBA minutes due for release at 0130GMT

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks


Expectations for much from the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes are low
I posted quick comments on what to expect (i.e. not much) from ANZ, Westpac and NAB yesterday here
 A couple more now:
  • The RBA's outlook for the Australian economy has been well telegraphed and we are unlikely to gain any new major insights in the April Minutes.
  • The Governor did, however, make a comment in his April Statement around some tightening of financial conditions in US dollar short-term money markets that has flowed through to Australia. This could potentially influence the outlook for domestic monetary policy if it was to persist. The Minutes are an opportunity for the RBA to expand on their thoughts around this more fully.
  • The RBA's message has been very consistent of late - rates are still on hold for an extended period of time to come. This was further reinforced yesterday by Governor Lowe's comments in a speech delivered Wednesday, reaffirming that the RBA sees the next move as up rather than down, but "does not see a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy".
  • Interest in ... minutes is thus likely to be centred first on any further comments addressing elevated funding levels, and trade/tariff commentary, both of which were (briefly) acknowledged in April's statement.

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